If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

Suggestions for improving forecasting and communication about it:

  1. Use probabilities instead of words to avoid misinterpretation
  2. Use structured approaches to set probabilities
  3. Seek feedback to improve your forecasting

—Andrew Mauboussin and Michael J. Mauboussin. “If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?Harvard Business Review. July 3, 2018.

Sites like Good Judgment can be a useful exercise in making predictions and getting feedback on the results.

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