How to Stay in a Game You’re Supposed to Lose Sometimes

June 11, 2026June 5, 2026 ~ cafebedouin ~ Leave a comment

You believe something. The market will turn. The hire won't last. The institution is rotting. You've done the work, the reasoning holds, you're fairly sure. Before you act, one question sorts almost everything that follows: will the world ever grade this belief, or only you? It sounds trivial. It is the most useful sorting move … Continue reading How to Stay in a Game You’re Supposed to Lose Sometimes

Three Years After “Grim News”

April 10, 2023April 10, 2023 ~ cafebedouin

Three years ago today, I predicted: "So, why is the above important? It means to get to herd immunity, something like 82% of people will have to get infected and of those that get infected, 0.4% will die. Then, we can calculate: Population * Percentage of People For Herd Immunity * Death Rate = Deaths … Continue reading Three Years After “Grim News”