If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

Suggestions for improving forecasting and communication about it:

  1. Use probabilities instead of words to avoid misinterpretation
  2. Use structured approaches to set probabilities
  3. Seek feedback to improve your forecasting

—Andrew Mauboussin and Michael J. Mauboussin. “If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?Harvard Business Review. July 3, 2018.

Sites like Good Judgment can be a useful exercise in making predictions and getting feedback on the results.

Documenting [The Egyptian] Revolution on 858.ma

Made fully public in January 2018, the site “858.ma” was created by the Mosireen Collective, a nonprofit media collective, as an “initiative to make public all the footage shot and collected since 2011” regarding the Egyptian Revolution. The site, upon launch, had 858 hours of footage — hence the name — and, according to its anonymous founders, is a tool for presenting histories and memories of the revolution and uprisings outside of the Egyptian regime’s counterrevolutionary narrative.”

—Cord Brooks. “Archiving Revolution on 858.ma. Los Angeles Review of Books. July 16, 2018.

The Intellectual Dark Web

The Internet is such a bizarre rabbit burrow of ideas. I came across the term: “Intellectual Dark Web” while skimming a Jacobite article providing an assessment of the “movement”. The article pointed to an aggregating website, which in turn links to guides like, “How to join the Intellectual Dark Web — a user’s guide.”

I suspect this is something that will gain some mindshare. On first blush, it seems like horseshit. But, I thought I’d post a note to look a little deeper later.

Nothing wrong with the wanting a space for the free exchange of ideas, particularly unpopular ones. But, intellectual and dark implies quite a bit more, as if a negative light shines through the ends of the Overton Window.

Sounds like bunkum and flimflam, but even error has its uses.