Give Us Grace and Strength

“Give us grace and strength to forbear and to persevere. Give us courage and gaiety, and the quiet mind. Spare to us our friends, soften to us our enemies. Bless us, if it may be, in all our innocent endeavors. If it may not, give us the strength to encounter that which is to come, that we may be brave in peril, constant in tribulation, temperate in wrath, and in all changes of fortune, and down to the gates of death, loyal and loving to one another.”

Robert Louis Stevenson

Thanksgiving Movie: The Last Waltz

Robbie Robertson – Guitar: [Last lines] The road was our school. At the end it was our sense of survival. It taught us all we know. There’s not much left that we can really take from the road. We’ve had our share of, or, maybe it’s just superstitious.

Martin Scorsese – Interviewer: Superstitious in what way?

Robbie Robertson – Guitar: No. You can press your luck. The road has taken a lot of great ones. Hank Williams. Buddy Holly. Otis Redding. Janis. Jimi Hendrix. Elvis. Its a goddamn impossible way of life.

Martin Scorsese – Interviewer: It is, isn’t it.

Robbie Robertson – Guitar: No question about it.

The Last Waltz

Probably can be said of any way of life. It’ll teach you everything you know, and it will kill you, if you let it. My preferred Thanksgiving movie, although Planes, Trains & Automobiles is also a worthy choice.

The Understructure of Thought

Language imposes limitations. When we reason, we use language, whether symbolic or natural. But, our understanding, or, perhaps it is better to talk about it as an intuition, runs deeper than our reason.

A common example can be found in a terms like “creepy”, “janky”, etc. We use these terms when there is uncertainty, when something is unreliable or unpredictable. The “creepy” guy on the bus is one that could possibly do something unexpected and unwanted. The “janky” piece of equipment will fail when it is needed. But, if we were certain, if we were able to reason that this person or piece of equipment were bad in some way, we would move toward judgment. This person is a bad person and must be avoided. This equipment is faulty; it must be replaced. The creepy and janky imply that we aren’t certain, but we know more than our reason can tell.

Of course, some of what makes up our intuition is a worldview, which is faulty. For example, people will look for information that confirms their bias, such as using the “precautionary principle” with respect to vaccines due to some rationale, such as an untested vaccine platform or antibody enhanced infection. However, the precautionary principle has a bias, against the new.

There are other principles. You could also use a decision-making model that looks at a decision in terms of risk/benefit. But, this also has a bias. Being able to assess risk and benefits means you have relevant experience that allows for making a risk/benefit assessment. But, it is useless where we have no experience.

Another would be focusing on signal-noise ratio for processing information. High signal means you have a lot of precision in what you hear, but it also implies that you may be missing signal. When you’ve attenuated what you are listening to down to a level that screens out most noise, you are also likely screening out signal. Perhaps that lost signal makes a difference in judgment? High signal implies a value judgment based on prior experience. It implies a level on confirmation bias.

You could probably think of many different ways of thinking about information and making decisions, and most of them would favor the status quo. So, perhaps, one way to break the tendency is to look for ways of making decisions that favor options with more unknowns, where it is difficult to make an assessment based on our prior experience. Experience forms the understructure of our thought. Broadening our experience helps us change our thinking from the ground up. More experience inables more variability in our intuitions, which in turn change our more formal, “rational” thoughts.

The Machine Stops by E. M. Forster

“”I believe that you pray to it when you are unhappy. Men made it, do not forget that. Great men, but men. The Machine is much, but it is not everything. I see something like you in this plate, but I do not see you. I hear something like you through this telephone, but I do not hear you. That is why I want you to come. Pay me a visit, so that we can meet face to face, and talk about the hopes that are in my mind….

..In the dawn of the world our weakly must be exposed on Mount Taygetus, in its twilight our strong will suffer euthanasia, that the Machine may progress, that the Machine may progress, that the Machine may progress eternally…

…Man is the measure. That was my first lesson. Man’s feet are the measure for distance, his hands are the measure for ownership, his body is the measure for all that is lovable and desirable and strong. Then I went further: it was then that I called to you for the first time, and you would not come…

…We created the Machine, to do our will, but we cannot make it do our will now. It was robbed us of the sense of space and of the sense of touch, it has blurred every human relation and narrowed down love to a carnal act, it has paralysed our bodies and our wills, and now it compels us to worship it. The Machine develops – but not on our lies. The Machine proceeds – but not to our goal.”

-E.M. Forrester, “The Machine Stops.”

A Crash Course on Crypto Economics in 1 Hour by Natasha Che

A newer one with a focus on stablecoins and fiat.

The whole series is worth a read if you have any interest in cryptocurrencies. Tascha also has a newsletter.