Estimate: ~15% (range 10–20%) Base rate. Forced irregular removal of authoritarian leaders runs roughly 2–4% per leader-year (general literature estimate, not verified against Archigos this session). The question's disjunction — flee or cease to be president — covers the full removal distribution. Starting prior: ~5%. What justifies a premium over base rate: Three stressors are … Continue reading Cuba Leadership Exit: Díaz-Canel Before 1 Jan 2027