A Thought Experiment That Moved Markets On February 22, 2026, Citrini Research's "Intelligence Displacement Spiral"—explicitly labeled "a scenario, not a prediction"—triggered real market volatility with its 2028 crisis thought experiment describing interconnected feedback loops where AI-driven labor substitution cascades through consumer spending, mortgage markets, and government revenue. The S&P 500 and Dow fell sharply on … Continue reading The Intelligence Displacement Spiral: A Structural Analysis of the Citrini Scenario
What Counts as Thinking: Knowledge Externalization Beyond Prose
The Pattern That Demands Explanation For roughly three thousand years, each major technology of knowledge externalization — oral formulaic composition, writing, apprenticeship, formal pedagogy, digital demonstration — has provoked the same institutional response: practitioners of the prior mode declared that "real" thinking had been lost. Each time, the declaration was partially correct about what was … Continue reading What Counts as Thinking: Knowledge Externalization Beyond Prose
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