Why Millions of American Dads Stopped Working — and Can't Start Again In 1954, 98 out of every 100 American men between 25 and 54 were either working or looking for work. Today, about 11 out of every 100 aren't working and aren't even looking. That's roughly 7 million men — enough to fill America's … Continue reading The Trap That Looks Like a Safety Net
A Taxonomy of Epistemic Parables
Pattern First Abraham Wald, during World War II, examined bullet-hole patterns on returning bombers. Every other analyst in the room recommended reinforcing the areas with the most damage. Wald recommended reinforcing the areas with no holes — because planes hit there didn't return. The story compresses a sophisticated statistical insight (selection effects in observational data) … Continue reading A Taxonomy of Epistemic Parables
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