Pattern First Abraham Wald, during World War II, examined bullet-hole patterns on returning bombers. Every other analyst in the room recommended reinforcing the areas with the most damage. Wald recommended reinforcing the areas with no holes — because planes hit there didn't return. The story compresses a sophisticated statistical insight (selection effects in observational data) … Continue reading A Taxonomy of Epistemic Parables
The Separation
I. The drill bit screams through ice older than human civilization, and Kira feels it in her teeth. Sixty meters down in Europa's crust, the vibration travels up through the rig, through her suit, through bone. She's been on surface for four months now. Two more until rotation back to Ganymede. Her radiation counter ticks. … Continue reading The Separation
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