Three years ago today, I predicted:
“So, why is the above important? It means to get to herd immunity, something like 82% of people will have to get infected and of those that get infected, 0.4% will die. Then, we can calculate:
Population * Percentage of People For Herd Immunity * Death Rate = Deaths
In the case of the United States, that works out to something like:
341,000,000 * .82 * .004 = 1,118,480 U.S. deaths”cafebedouin, “Grim News: Cutting Through the COVID-19 Bullshit.” cafebedouin.org. April 10, 2020.
Three years later, to the day, the CDC website reports 1,127,104 U.S. deaths from COVID-19.