Three Years After “Grim News”

Three years ago today, I predicted:

“So, why is the above important? It means to get to herd immunity, something like 82% of people will have to get infected and of those that get infected, 0.4% will die. Then, we can calculate:

Population * Percentage of People For Herd Immunity * Death Rate = Deaths

In the case of the United States, that works out to something like:

341,000,000 * .82 * .004 = 1,118,480 U.S. deaths”

cafebedouin, “Grim News: Cutting Through the COVID-19 Bullshit.” April 10, 2020.

Three years later, to the day, the CDC website reports 1,127,104 U.S. deaths from COVID-19.