Portugal 2026: Fragmentation Marsh with Rejection Runoff

Electoral Constraint Topology Analysis Classification: Fragmentation Marsh → Rejection RunoffDate: January 27, 2026Status: First round complete (Jan 18, 2026), Runoff pending (Feb 8, 2026)Confidence: High (actual electoral results available) Executive Summary Portugal 2026 represents a fifth distinct electoral archetype in the constraint topology framework: Fragmentation Marsh with Rejection Runoff mechanism. Unlike the four previously documented … Continue reading Portugal 2026: Fragmentation Marsh with Rejection Runoff

Against Adequacy as Achievement: A Manifesto

Adequacy became a credential you earn instead of a condition you inhabit—and the system selling you solutions is the system that revoked it in the first place. You are not broken. The diagnosis is the disease. Every "30 under 30" list creates ten thousand 31-year-olds who feel obsolete. Every productivity app implies your unaugmented attention … Continue reading Against Adequacy as Achievement: A Manifesto

Colombia 2026 Election: Falsification Matrix

Note: What follows is a falsification matrix for the essay, "A Constraint Story: Why Colombia’s Election Defies Standard Forecasting." Testing the Constraint Theory Against Observable Data LIVE UPDATE: January 26, 2026 - Prediction Market Analysis Current Market Probabilities (Median Forecasts) Source: Prediction market opened 01/16/26, data as of 01/26/26 CandidateMedian ProbabilityRange (Low-High)Essay ExpectationStatusAbelardo de la Espriella46%25-58%~35% … Continue reading Colombia 2026 Election: Falsification Matrix

When Maintenance Becomes Quarantine: Recognizing the Limits of Containment

In gardening, you can compost almost anything organic. Kitchen scraps, yard waste, paper—given time and the right conditions, they break down into rich soil. But agricultural guidelines are clear about exceptions: don't compost carnivore feces. Dog and cat waste contains parasites and pathogens that composting heat doesn't eliminate. They don't transform into nutrients. They contaminate … Continue reading When Maintenance Becomes Quarantine: Recognizing the Limits of Containment

Why Your AI Model Choice Matters: A Practical Guide to Matching Models to Tasks

The Problem: Most people pick an AI model the same way they pick a search engine—they find one that works and stick with it forever. You're a "Claude person" or a "ChatGPT person" or you use Copilot because that's what your company deployed. The Reality: AI models are more like specialized tools than interchangeable text … Continue reading Why Your AI Model Choice Matters: A Practical Guide to Matching Models to Tasks

Words & Phrases, 2025

This eclectic collection is a cabinet of curiosities from the world's languages, literatures, philosophies, and subcultures—a mosaic of forgotten words, sharp idioms, and poignant phrases that capture the human condition in all its absurdity, beauty, and precision. Here you'll find ancient echoes (haruspicate, kairos, hamingja) alongside modern coinages (weaponized incompetence, hallucinationship, diarrhea warrior). Some evoke … Continue reading Words & Phrases, 2025

Zuihitsu, 2025-12

These aren’t polished essays or tidy aphorisms. They’re scraps I’ve carried around this month—half-heard thoughts, borrowed lines, sudden recognitions—that refused to be forgotten. Zuihitsu literally means “following the brush,” and while my version is shorter and scrappier than the classical form, the impulse feels the same: to catch what drifts across the mind before it … Continue reading Zuihitsu, 2025-12

Kafka’s Genocide Manual

The work's genius isn't that it shows suffering—it's that it shows how ordinary people become capable of murder through paperwork. The Metamorphosis operates as instruction manual for ordinary evil, and readers miss this because they're too busy feeling sorry for the bug. Gregor never stops being human. That's not ambiguity—it's the text's central fact. An … Continue reading Kafka’s Genocide Manual