“Simple Risk Measurement is written to help you measure complicated risks using a process that’s simple enough to work out on the back of a napkin and powerful enough to organize a rocket launch.
If you are an engineer motivated by the reduction of risk and are frustrated by how to measure your progress, you may find this documentation useful. Simple Risk Measurement can get you started towards a comprehensive and scientific approach to risk. It is designed to enhance subject matter experts who work with risk, especially those who mitigate complex risks on an ongoing basis…
…This approach is very simple to trivialize into a few steps.
- Define a risk scenario: A well defined, undesirable future event that we want to measure.
- Gather the evidence: We gather facts, reference classes, models, experiences, and opinions.
- Estimate the outcomes: We estimate of the probabilities / impacts the scenario may have.
- Make a decision: We make decisions with this information, and measure again if needed.
- Keep Score: As outcomes occur, we check our work, improve our methods and reduce our uncertainty.”