Three years ago today, I predicted: "So, why is the above important? It means to get to herd immunity, something like 82% of people will have to get infected and of those that get infected, 0.4% will die. Then, we can calculate: Population * Percentage of People For Herd Immunity * Death Rate = Deaths … Continue reading Three Years After “Grim News”
Tag: superforecasting
The Secret Ingredients of ‘Superforecasting’
"From 2011 to 2015, the US government-funded online initiative pitted the predictive powers of ordinary people against Washington, DC intelligence analysts on the most significant geopolitical questions of the day. Over successive rounds, Tetlock and Mellers identified the very best prognosticators from the 25,000-strong participant pool and shunted them into elite teams. Despite the fact … Continue reading The Secret Ingredients of ‘Superforecasting’
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