The Secret Ingredients of ‘Superforecasting’

“From 2011 to 2015, the US government-funded online initiative pitted the predictive powers of ordinary people against Washington, DC intelligence analysts on the most significant geopolitical questions of the day. Over successive rounds, Tetlock and Mellers identified the very best prognosticators from the 25,000-strong participant pool and shunted them into elite teams. Despite the fact that the Beltway experts had access to classified data and intelligence reports, the GJP superforecaster squads bested them in predictive accuracy by about 30 percent.”

-Ville Satopää, ” The Secret Ingredients of ‘Superforecasting’.” November 8, 2019.

There’s also the book “Superforecasting,” by Phillip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. To try your hand at it, can be worth a look.