Pattern First Abraham Wald, during World War II, examined bullet-hole patterns on returning bombers. Every other analyst in the room recommended reinforcing the areas with the most damage. Wald recommended reinforcing the areas with no holes — because planes hit there didn't return. The story compresses a sophisticated statistical insight (selection effects in observational data) … Continue reading A Taxonomy of Epistemic Parables
Tag: rationality
Frame-Switching: The Hidden Pattern in Pointless Arguments
The One-Inch Frame Two friends argue heatedly about whether a hot dog is a sandwich. One insists it is—bread on both sides, filling in the middle. The other insists it isn't—ask any deli. After twenty minutes, neither has moved an inch. How to Disagree About Categories In March 2008, Paul Graham published "How to Disagree," … Continue reading Frame-Switching: The Hidden Pattern in Pointless Arguments
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