You're alone in a quiet room when the concept hits: you've been defending a dead project because of what you already spent, not what you'll gain. The recognition restructures your decision. Three months later someone deploys that same concept in a meeting to diagnose someone else's error. The project continues anyway. A concept like "sunk … Continue reading The Functional Migration Problem
Tag: rationality
A Taxonomy of Epistemic Parables
Pattern First Abraham Wald, during World War II, examined bullet-hole patterns on returning bombers. Every other analyst in the room recommended reinforcing the areas with the most damage. Wald recommended reinforcing the areas with no holes — because planes hit there didn't return. The story compresses a sophisticated statistical insight (selection effects in observational data) … Continue reading A Taxonomy of Epistemic Parables
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