"The objective is to calculate risk profiles for vaccines targeting human infectious diseases. A database was actively compiled to include all vaccine projects in development from 1998 to 2009 in the pre-clinical development phase, clinical trials phase I, II and III up to Market Registration. The average vaccine, taken from the preclinical phase, requires a … Continue reading Chances of a COVID-19 Vaccine
Tag: probabilities
Simple Risk Measurement
"Simple Risk Measurement is written to help you measure complicated risks using a process that’s simple enough to work out on the back of a napkin and powerful enough to organize a rocket launch. If you are an engineer motivated by the reduction of risk and are frustrated by how to measure your progress, you … Continue reading Simple Risk Measurement
If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
Suggestions for improving forecasting and communication about it: Use probabilities instead of words to avoid misinterpretation Use structured approaches to set probabilities Seek feedback to improve your forecasting —Andrew Mauboussin and Michael J. Mauboussin. "If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?" Harvard Business Review. July 3, 2018. Sites like … Continue reading If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
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