Electoral Constraint Topology Analysis Classification: Fragmentation Marsh → Rejection RunoffDate: January 27, 2026Status: First round complete (Jan 18, 2026), Runoff pending (Feb 8, 2026)Confidence: High (actual electoral results available) Executive Summary Portugal 2026 represents a fifth distinct electoral archetype in the constraint topology framework: Fragmentation Marsh with Rejection Runoff mechanism. Unlike the four previously documented … Continue reading Portugal 2026: Fragmentation Marsh with Rejection Runoff
Tag: deferential realism
A Constraint Story: Why Colombia’s Election Defies Standard Forecasting
TL;DR Standard prediction models will focus on polling momentum, scandal exposure, debate performance, and macroeconomic shocks. These matter, but they're second-order variables. The constraint structure of Columbia's election determines what range of outcomes is possible; campaign events select within that range. These are the signals that matter: 1. Coalition Fragmentation Pressure (C3 Entropy) Watch whether … Continue reading A Constraint Story: Why Colombia’s Election Defies Standard Forecasting
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