Estimate: ~15% (range 10–20%) Base rate. Forced irregular removal of authoritarian leaders runs roughly 2–4% per leader-year (general literature estimate, not verified against Archigos this session). The question's disjunction — flee or cease to be president — covers the full removal distribution. Starting prior: ~5%. What justifies a premium over base rate: Three stressors are … Continue reading Cuba Leadership Exit: Díaz-Canel Before 1 Jan 2027
Tag: political forecasting
Colombia 2026 Election: Falsification Matrix
Note: What follows is a falsification matrix for the essay, "A Constraint Story: Why Colombia’s Election Defies Standard Forecasting." Testing the Constraint Theory Against Observable Data LIVE UPDATE: January 26, 2026 - Prediction Market Analysis Current Market Probabilities (Median Forecasts) Source: Prediction market opened 01/16/26, data as of 01/26/26 CandidateMedian ProbabilityRange (Low-High)Essay ExpectationStatusAbelardo de la Espriella46%25-58%~35% … Continue reading Colombia 2026 Election: Falsification Matrix
