Note: Written in early February 2026. The Forecasting Paradox On January 9, 2026, the latest polling for Paris's March 15 municipal election showed a five-way race: Emmanuel Grégoire (Socialist, 33%), Rachida Dati (Republicans, 26%), Pierre-Yves Bournazel (centrist, 16%), Sophia Chikirou (far-left, 11%), and Sarah Knafo (far-right, 9%). Standard political analysis treats this as a "fluid" … Continue reading Paris 2026: The Reform Test, Can Electoral Engineering Break Polarization Traps?
Tag: political forecasting
Cuba Leadership Exit: Díaz-Canel Before 1 Jan 2027
Estimate: ~15% (range 10–20%) Base rate. Forced irregular removal of authoritarian leaders runs roughly 2–4% per leader-year (general literature estimate, not verified against Archigos this session). The question's disjunction — flee or cease to be president — covers the full removal distribution. Starting prior: ~5%. What justifies a premium over base rate: Three stressors are … Continue reading Cuba Leadership Exit: Díaz-Canel Before 1 Jan 2027
cafebedouin.org 