"Monkeypox causes a flu-like array of symptoms, but also comes with a distinctive rash; one telltale sign is the fact that lesions often appear on the palms of hands. So far it seems that the cases are being caused by viruses from the West African clade, which triggers milder disease than the other family of … Continue reading Monkeypox
Tag: pandemic
The Pandemic Cyclone
"This chart shows the daily number of new Covid-19 infections in each state over time. The y-axis is the population-normalized number of new infections per day; the x-axis is the rate of transmission (Rt). Each dot is a state or territory of the US, colored by region, and the area of the dot is proportional … Continue reading The Pandemic Cyclone
Scarfolk Council: Plan C
"Scarfolk is a town in North West England that did not progress beyond 1979. Instead, the entire decade of the 1970s loops ad infinitum. Here in Scarfolk, pagan rituals blend seamlessly with science; hauntology is a compulsory subject at school, and everyone must be in bed by 8pm because they are perpetually running a slight … Continue reading Scarfolk Council: Plan C
Masks are the Pandemic Marshmallow Test
"The Stanford marshmallow experiment was a study on delayed gratification in 1972 led by psychologist Walter Mischel, a professor at Stanford University.[1] In this study, a child was offered a choice between one small but immediate reward, or two small rewards if they waited for a period of time. During this time, the researcher left … Continue reading Masks are the Pandemic Marshmallow Test
Kondratiev Waves & Social Unrest
"In the United States, 50-year instability spikes occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970, so another could be due around 2020. We are also entering a dip in the so-called Kondratiev wave, which traces 40-60-year economic-growth cycles. This could mean that future recessions will be severe. In addition, the next decade will see a rapid growth … Continue reading Kondratiev Waves & Social Unrest
Time to Mitigate, Not Contain
"We have long needed a Plan B for the scenario where a big fraction of everyone gets exposed to Covid19, and for this plan I’ve explored variolation and other forms of deliberate exposure. To be ready, variolation just needs a small (~100) short (1-2mo.) trial to verify the quite likely (>75%) case that it works … Continue reading Time to Mitigate, Not Contain
Chances of a COVID-19 Vaccine
"The objective is to calculate risk profiles for vaccines targeting human infectious diseases. A database was actively compiled to include all vaccine projects in development from 1998 to 2009 in the pre-clinical development phase, clinical trials phase I, II and III up to Market Registration. The average vaccine, taken from the preclinical phase, requires a … Continue reading Chances of a COVID-19 Vaccine
Harvard’s Reinhart and Rogoff Say This Time Really Is Different
"And you want to talk about a negative productivity shock, too. The biggest positive productivity shock we’ve had over the last 40 years has been globalization together with technology. And I think if you take away the globalization, you probably take away some of the technology. So that affects not just trade, but movements and … Continue reading Harvard’s Reinhart and Rogoff Say This Time Really Is Different
Social Distancing: One Beatles Apart
From Pand<<<Aid.
Knowledge of the Future
"...there are (a) facts, (b) informed extrapolations from analogies to other viruses and (c) opinion or speculation....if you’re experiencing something that has never been seen before, you simply can’t say you know how it’ll turn out....There’s no algorithm for deciding whether to favor life for a few (or for thousands) versus economic improvement for millions."-Howard … Continue reading Knowledge of the Future
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