Over the Long Term: Good Market > Good Team

“These data points made me think about an important piece of advice that a well respected hedge fund manager once told me — most of your financial returns will come from the markets you select to invest in, rather than the actual securities you decide to hold. Another way to think about it is through the lens of entrepreneurship advice “When a good team meets a bad market, the market wins. When a bad team meets a good market, the market wins.”

So much of compounding is predicated on the idea that a high rate of compounding will continue for decades. If you’re successful in finding one of these markets, the challenge won’t be in making many good decisions, but rather in having the discipline and emotional control to avoid making any decisions at all. This is ultimately where I think bitcoin is at the moment. It continues to compound at an impressive rate. You just have to be patient enough to outlast everyone who can’t think long term.”

Anthony Pompliano, “Warren Buffett, Bitcoin, and Compounding.” pomp.substack.com. December 14, 2021

The Lindy Effect

“The Lindy effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.[1] Where the Lindy effect applies, mortality rate decreases with time.

-Wikipedia contributors, “Lindy effect,” Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Lindy_effect&oldid=935239146 (accessed January 12, 2020).