One and One Sometimes Equals Eleven

January 5, 2019January 10, 2019 ~ cafebedouin

We often make assumptions that are reasonable in one context, abstract it into a guideline and apply that guideline to a new situation. Often, it is difficult to assess whether these situations are close enough to apply what we know to what we don't. At base, this is the problem of induction. There is no … Continue reading One and One Sometimes Equals Eleven

If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?

July 25, 2018 ~ cafebedouin

Suggestions for improving forecasting and communication about it: Use probabilities instead of words to avoid misinterpretation Use structured approaches to set probabilities Seek feedback to improve your forecasting —Andrew Mauboussin and Michael J. Mauboussin. "If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?" Harvard Business Review. July 3, 2018. Sites like … Continue reading If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?