Three years ago today, I predicted: "So, why is the above important? It means to get to herd immunity, something like 82% of people will have to get infected and of those that get infected, 0.4% will die. Then, we can calculate: Population * Percentage of People For Herd Immunity * Death Rate = Deaths … Continue reading Three Years After “Grim News”
Tag: COVID-19
Monkeypox
"Monkeypox causes a flu-like array of symptoms, but also comes with a distinctive rash; one telltale sign is the fact that lesions often appear on the palms of hands. So far it seems that the cases are being caused by viruses from the West African clade, which triggers milder disease than the other family of … Continue reading Monkeypox
The Pandemic Cyclone
"This chart shows the daily number of new Covid-19 infections in each state over time. The y-axis is the population-normalized number of new infections per day; the x-axis is the rate of transmission (Rt). Each dot is a state or territory of the US, colored by region, and the area of the dot is proportional … Continue reading The Pandemic Cyclone
We Know What You Did During Lockdown. An FT Film Written by James Graham
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WTpO9y2Dh4 Obvious, but worth saying again. Algorithms aren't moral agents, and hence, they are not in the position to make moral judgments.
COVID-19 Deaths Compared to War
"More Americans have died from Covid-19 than on the battlefields of World War I, World War II and the Vietnam War combined."—Remy Tumin and Jeremiah M. Bogert, Jr., "Your Weekend Briefing." The New York Times. February 21, 2021. As another point of reference, 27 million people died in the Soviet Union during World War II.
Masks are the Pandemic Marshmallow Test
"The Stanford marshmallow experiment was a study on delayed gratification in 1972 led by psychologist Walter Mischel, a professor at Stanford University.[1] In this study, a child was offered a choice between one small but immediate reward, or two small rewards if they waited for a period of time. During this time, the researcher left … Continue reading Masks are the Pandemic Marshmallow Test
Percentage of Dumb (or Extremely Selfish) Americans? About 29%.
You don't need to be afraid, but concerned? It'll impact you, or someone you care about, either directly or through second order effects. So, stop being as asshole, 29%-er.
Black Death, COVID & Renewal
"So, our outline for today:1. Renaissance Life was Worse than the Middle Ages (super-compressed version)2. Where did the myth come from in the first place? (a Renaissance story)3. Why is the myth of a golden Renaissance retold so much? (a post-Renaissance story)4. Conclusion: We Should Aim for Something Better than the Renaissance"—Ada Palmer, "Black Death, … Continue reading Black Death, COVID & Renewal
Kondratiev Waves & Social Unrest
"In the United States, 50-year instability spikes occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970, so another could be due around 2020. We are also entering a dip in the so-called Kondratiev wave, which traces 40-60-year economic-growth cycles. This could mean that future recessions will be severe. In addition, the next decade will see a rapid growth … Continue reading Kondratiev Waves & Social Unrest
Counterglow
"This map shows factory farms and other animal facilities in the United States."-Counterglow "The map is meant to offer a rare bird’s-eye view of the scale of the industry, while also providing a research tool for activist investigators. Kecia Doolittle, the leader of the team that created the map, is an animal rights activist who … Continue reading Counterglow
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