Suggestions for improving forecasting and communication about it: Use probabilities instead of words to avoid misinterpretation Use structured approaches to set probabilities Seek feedback to improve your forecasting —Andrew Mauboussin and Michael J. Mauboussin. "If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?" Harvard Business Review. July 3, 2018. Sites like … Continue reading If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
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Really Reading Means Being Open to Change
To really read any discursive text, whether a philosophical tract or a legal contract, is a disturbing and cognitively disorienting experience, because it means allowing another person’s thoughts to intrude into your own and rearrange your beliefs and assumptions — often not in ways to which you would consent if warned in advance. Even when … Continue reading Really Reading Means Being Open to Change
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