I got involved with the Ergo cryptocurrency back in 2021. There was a lot to learn. Initially, I used Reddit. A few months in, I had a question that I needed to use Telegram to resolve. In cryptocurrencies, most of the discussion happens in Telegram and/or Discord. I became active on Telegram. I spent a lot of time providing tech support, writing documentation and so forth. I also started using Twitter regularly to be more aware of things that were going on in other cryptocurrencies.

The consequence for cafebedouin.org is that I haven’t been using it to write about what I’ve been thinking about and much of my thinking was directed at money, monetary policy, markets and how cryptocurrencies might fit into this new landscape that has been emerging. But, much of that thinking and discussion did not happen on this site.

The problem that I eventually ran into is that, in my considered opinion, there is good reason to believe that a recession is imminent. The current market environment is a strange one, full of distortions from liquidity injections from central banks, supply shocks, the impact of a pandemic on the productivity of workers, and a whole host of other factors. But, my sense, at this moment, is that there will be a global economic recession in 2024.

Many people involved in cryptocurrencies believe we are on the cusp of “the next bull run”. Cryptocurrencies have never been through a recession, and I think this one will be more significant than most. So, this put me at odds with many people in the Ergo community, who are focused on Bitcoin market cycles, Bitcoin ETFs, price action and other developments they believe will be positive for their cryptocurrency portfolio. A certain subsegment seem to believe that if everyone just believes something will happen, and pulls toward that thing collectively, that thing will happen. Obviously, many of these people are young and haven’t experienced how much of life is not getting what you want.

In the end, I decided to step back from my involvement in the Ergo community. A few weeks have passed, and I have slowly come to the realization that being involved in a “community”, whether crypto or another, tends to warp your ability to be objective about it. Nothing particularly insightful about that fact. It’s obvious. But, at the same time, additional lived experience tends to give greater weight to obvious ideas.

This is a long way of saying that this interlude is now over, and I will return to using this blog to think through ideas or just to post about things I find interesting. I’m thinking about returning to the daily posting schedule. If you happen to be subscribed to emails and do not want the increased volume, now would be a good time to unsubscribe.

Happy Holidays! I wish you the best.

I’m looking forward to writing about my experiences over the last few years in this blog in the coming months. I’m not sure they will be of any use to anyone but myself. But, I think I’m due for a long put-off reckoning.