“The Maes–Garreau law is the statement that ‘most favorable predictions about future technology will fall within the Maes–Garreau point’, defined as ‘the latest possible date a prediction can come true and still remain in the lifetime of the person making it’.[1] Specifically, it relates to predictions of a technological singularity or other radical future technologies.[1]“
-Wikipedia contributors, “Maes–Garreau law,” Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Maes%E2%80%93Garreau_law&oldid=1178567369 (accessed February 26, 2024).
Tag: rules
The Advertising Test
The Campsite Rule
“Tell no lies; make no outsize promises; transmit no infections. Ideally, everyone would leave everyone in better shape than when they found them.”
—Dan Savage quoted in Lila Shapiro, “The Age Gappers.” The Cut. December 20, 2023.
Generalizing the 5/10/15 Rule for U.S. Drug Development, Or The Cycle of the New
“U.S. drug development cycle, which he says “always follows the 5/10/15 rule. For the first 5 years, companies hype new drugs; next 5 years all hidden side effects are exposed, leading to black-box warnings and class action lawsuits; in [the] last 5 years, the companies start dissing their own old drug as the patent runs out to begin the hype cycle for their next new drug.”
-Jane Metclafe, “2023 Predictions-The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly.” neo.life. January 2023
This article on 2023 predictions is worth reading in full. However, I particularly found this piece interesting. Ultimately, this is about how incentives drive behavior. So, we might generalize this rule to something like: “Any novel thing goes through a period that focuses on benefits, another period on the risks, then finally becomes the status quo that will be replaced by some other, new thing.”
Little Rules About Big Things
“People have vastly different desires, except for three things: Respect, feeling useful, and control over their time. Those are nearly universal.
…the past wasn’t as good as you remember, the present isn’t as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate.
A comforting delusion is thinking that other people’s bad circumstances couldn’t also happen to you.
Nothing too good or too bad stays that way forever, because great times plant the seeds of their own destruction through complacency and leverage, and bad times plant the seeds of their own turnaround through opportunity and panic-driven problem-solving.
Emotions can override any level of intelligence.
No one is thinking about you as much as you are.
There is an optimal amount of bullshit in life. Having no tolerance for hassle, nonsense and inefficiency is not an admirable trait; it’s denying reality. Once you accept a certain level of BS, you stop denying its existence and have a clearer view of how the world works.
You can’t believe in risk without also believing in luck because they are fundamentally the same thing—an acknowledgment that things outside of your control can have a bigger impact on outcomes than anything you do on your own.
A large group of people can become better informed over time. But they can’t, on average, become more patient, less greedy, or more level-headed during periods of upheaval. That will never change.
More people wake up every morning wanting to solve problems than wake up looking to cause harm. But people who cause harm get the most attention. So slow progress amid a drumbeat of bad news is the normal state of affairs.”
-Morgan Housal, “Little Rules About Big Things.” Collab Fund. October 11, 2022
This whole thing is quality.
Dru Riley’s 100 Rules
“3. “Not wanting something is as good as having it.” — If you don’t want something, you’re just as satisfied as someone who has it. Naval Ravikant says that “…desire is a contract that you make with yourself to be unhappy until you get what you want.”…
42. “It’s easier to resist in the beginning than the end.” — Mistakes become harder to correct the longer they linger. Sunk costs play tricks on us. Suck it up and rip the bandaid off now. Toxic relationships, bad hires and tough conversations. It’s immediate pain versus chronic pain…
82. “Play long-term games. Compound returns.” — Focus on the long-term. Most benefits come from later stages of compounding. Pick up habits that you can see yourself sticking with. Jeff Bezos says to focus on what doesn’t change…
90. “Live below your means for freedom and options.” — Establish a margin of safety to take more risks. James Clear says that ‘Your success depends on the risks you take. Your survival depends on the risks you avoid.‘
Dru Riley, “100 Rules — Personal Philosophy.” druriley.com. Accessed August 20, 2022
I might tweak some of these, such as 82 should be infinite games and build on the ideas of James Carse in Finite and Infinite Games. But, this is a good list.
Zuihitsu, 2022-07
Technically, zuihitsu are longer reflections than what I tend to collect. But, the general idea is right. Here’s this month’s installment. If you want the complete set, please download the fortune file.
- You do not need to be related to relate.
- Stop seeing life as a canvas to fill and see it as marble to shape.
- The market owes you nothing.
- Incorporate some calculated risks into your plan.
- You never know when you’re going to run out of steam.
- I don’t interest myself in the why. I think more often in terms of the when, sometimes where, and always how much.
- Don’t repeat yourself.
- Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.—James Baldwin
- Markets of abundance are both bad for the median consumer, and good for intelligent ones.
- Cars destroy community.
- The test of all beliefs is their practical effect in life.—Helen Keller
- Forgiveness and compassion are always linked.
- Our scientific power has outrun our spiritual power. We have guided missiles and misguided men.—Martin Luther King, Jr.
- Look for the 25 to 1 risk profile.
- You only find out who’s swimming naked when the tide goes out.—Warren Buffett
- Smart people hate small talk.
- Act like you like someone and you will.
- How do you spend most of your time?
- Perhaps the dead are the only reliable narrators because their stories are all they have left.
- It takes years, if ever, to understand the relative authenticities of our relationships.
- Stand in the presence of questions and do not look for answers.
- Play the man, not the puck.
- There’s imprisonment in trying to recreate the past.
- Love is the process of refining the truths we can tell each other.
- To know is to share a community of interpretation.
- In the game of privacy, the only way to win is not to login.
- Build infrastructure.
- Paths are made by walking.
- Tactics are exchanging one problem for an easier one.
- People have done this before, but not us.—Ada Limón
- And now that you don’t have to be perfect, you can be good.—John Steinbeck, East of Eden
- How long can the corpus outlast the corpse?
- If you aim at nothing, you hit nothing.
- I, and I alone, am responsible for everything I think and feel.
- The First Law of Online Writing: always make sure that anything you want to endure is hosted on a platform that you control.
- No. I’m fully committed right now.
- Will this choice enlarge me or diminish me?
- The chances are minuscule. But minuscule is not zero.
- To be alive, he says, is to act in ways that reduce the gulf between your expectations and your sensory inputs.
- The past can’t hurt you anymore, not unless you let it.—Alan Moore in V for Vendetta
- Enduring relationships anchor our identity or our sense of self.
- Anything studied and discussed long enough on the internet tends to lead to disillusionment.
- People focus on the vices more than the virtues, and lose trust.
- Theories followed far enough permit us to transcend our worldview.
- Do nothing without gaiety.
- Withhold judgment. Distrust your own knowledge, and avoid ideology.
- You ultimately become whoever would have saved you that time no one did.
- Choose what is simple without hesitation; sooner or later, what is complicated will always lead to problems.–Bernard Moitessier
- Obsession with detail is a hallmark of the most successful maintainers.
- Simplicity is a form of beauty.–Bernard Moitessier
- Do not crystalize your thinking prematurely.
- Rapid growth is unbalanced growth. Eventually, growth will be redistributed to an equilibrium.
- Be genuine. Be interested. Give the conversation air.
- …what we have loved, / Others will love, and we will teach them how.–Wordsworth
- People are different, with different strengths and weaknesses. It’s important to understand who you’re dealing with.
- One believes things because one has been conditioned to believe them.—Aldous Huxley
- Don’t overreact to recent bad news.
Zuihitsu, 2022-06
Technically, zuihitsu are longer reflections than what I tend to collect. But, the general idea is right. Here’s this month’s installment. If you want the complete set, please download the fortune file.
- Cocaine is a drug for the lonely.
- Problems that remain persistently insoluble should always be suspected as questions asked in the wrong way.—Alan Watts
- There’s always space for new narratives. The more we share our individual stories, the more we open up space for our collective stories to shift and accommodate them.
- A good ending accounts for everything that came before.
- Meaning of life: eat and not be eaten.
- Scarcity makes people happy.
- Never end a command with a verb you do not want them to do.
- Your opinion is also a confession of character.
- Everybody complains of their memory, but nobody of their judgement”—La Rochefoucauld
- Find the room that aligns with your goals.
- The audience programs the media.
- Life is a long preparation for something that never happens.—W.B. Yeats
- Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.—George Bernard Shaw
- Death is essential. Predation is the transfer of life and that life is a gift.
- A little nonsense, now and then, is relished by the wisest men.—Willy Wonka
- Surprise is a warning that our understanding is inadequate.
- Be the unanswerable riddle.
- Are we living in a fairy tale?
- True distance is measured in time.
- Peace is postponing the conflict until the reason for the fighting no longer matters.
- The grass is always greener on the other side of extinction.
- Racing when its not a race gets you nowhere.
- Learn to question your assumptions of how other people feel.
- Patience is easier when there is no alternative.
- Differences in status and wealth drives violence.
- People are social, and our identity is built from what we see and hear of ourselves reflected in others.
- A culture that encourages the trashing of the nearest and easiest targets will always implode from infighting.—Noah Smith
- There is no replacement for experimentation, independent thought and ruthless pragmatism.
- The best managers are stellar individual contributors who don’t want to be managers, but they take the role on to maintain their quality standards.
- [You] don’t need a randomized controlled trial to know that a kick in the testicles is going to hurt.—Paul Chek
- Don’t tweet, just delete.
- The five most important skills are reading, writing, arithmetic, persuasion, and programming.
- It is more important that a proposition be interesting than that it be true.—A.N. Whitehead
- We are the music makers, we are the dreamers of dreams.—Willy Wonka
- Do the best you can until you know better. Then, when you know better, do better.—Maya Angelou
- People with patience are more difficult to manipulate.
- The way of the bully depends upon coercion and control.
- Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything.—George Bernard Shaw
- When in a hole, stop digging.
- What if this situation is even worse than I thought?
- Evolution is a machine turning function into structure.
- Forgiveness is accepting the apology you will never receive.—Shawne Duperon
- The more ubiquitous it is, the more value in the original.
- Sell when they want your assets. Buy when they want your cash.
- He who brings trouble on his house will inherit the wind.—Proverbs 11:29
- Every plan shatters on contact with reality.
- Loneliness is both an inability to bond with others, but it is also when we become strangers to ourselves.
- Signs of old order collapse: nothing works.
- Human beings are an eye blink in the cosmic calendar.
- Don’t talk your way out of a compliment.
- The con does not work without the confidence.
- When you see a good move, look for a better one.—Emanuel Laskel
- Politics is for puppets.
- Never appeal to someone’s better nature. They may not have one.
- Don’t get caught in a distraction.
Zuihitsu: 2022-05
Technically, zuihitsu are longer reflections than what I tend to collect. But, the general idea is right. Here’s this month’s installment. If you want the complete set, please download the fortune file.
- Architecture is what you do with the potential of life. —Sir Peter Cook
- Specialization tends to shut off the wide-band tuning searches and thus to preclude further discovery.—Buckminster Fuller
- Walk the line between chaos and the man.
- Want to be irascible? Better be entertaining.
- Learn to recognize when it is not your turn.
- Know your why.
- The price of a free press is torrents of bullshit.
- Nothing in life is sure.
- We all have chapters we would rather stay unpublished.
- Everybody goes down the aisle with half the story hidden.
- New market benefit most from contrarian viewpoints.
- Cui bono? Who benefits?
- The more you own it, the more you learn.
- You have to speculate to accumulate.
- Four quadrants: truths, probabilities, possibilities, and lies.
- Never make an enemy by accident.
- Never mistake a wish for a certainty.
- A group will reflect the larger culture in which it is part.
- Dreams are greater than facts.
- Investing: start early, live below your means, save regularly, diversify broadly, and stick to your investment plan.
- Take a chance and fail spectacularly. That’s how you learn to succeed.
- You must be your own master and call your own tune.
- The materials dictate what needs to be done.
- Principles are like prayers. Noble but awkward at a party.
- A mind can only solve problems of similar size.
- Develop a core strength of taste and select for beauty.
- Complain less.
- Contemplate what the world looks like long after you are gone.
- Everything worthwhile is done with other people.
- Time favors truth.
- A bet is a tax on bullshit.
- Avoid disputes. Disputes are a time sink and prevent you from getting real work done.
- Avoid becoming an administrator, a job that consists of dealing with money and disputes.
- What we need today more than anything else is to invest in beauty.—Vangelis
- Temporal bandwidth is the width of your present, your now. How far into the past (or the future) is now?
- Half-truths are lies. Every statement is a half-truth. All statements are lies. Q.E.D.
- The perfect is the enemy of the possible.
- Environment beats self-control every time.
- Beware bullish borrowers.
- Art is what you make for yourself or give to others. Sell it and art becomes a business.
- Earn, learn or relax.
- Life is a single player game.
- Omniscience has no need for memory.
- Be curious about change.
- Embrace anomalies and outliers.
- Hold exploratory views, but loosely.
- Use tools that make you think differently.
- Look for patterns rather than timescales.
- Each of us must lives with inescapable loneliness, and the temptation is to destroy ourselves to escape it. —paraphrase of Jim Harrison
- Shift imagination from the periphery to the foundation of all knowledge.
- The less you know, the harder it is to learn.
- There are more stupid people to factor in than you imagine.
- The tool or platform we are using can keep us stupid, even when we’re smart.
- Ignorance is insufficient data to solve a problem; stupidity is where no amount of data will solve it.
- Rules inflexibly applied lead to poor outcomes.
- It is not what you do not know but what you know that is not so that gets you into trouble.
- Avoiding open disagreement reduces the collective intelligence of any group.
- Craving the safety of clarity will make you stupid.
- Two points define a line. Three a playing field.
- No net is so fine or strong that nothing can get through.
- Endure the blow, accept the damage, and let someone else strike back.
- Death or hardship is not fearful, but our fear of them can destroy us.—paraphrase of Epictetus
- If you spend enough time in spaces that demand you be interesting, you eventually become boring.
- Once a strongman loses the ability to terrorize, a loss of respect is rarely far behind.
- Populism’s animating spirit is hatred of cultural elites.
- If you do not need it and will not use it, do not buy it.
- Mistakes are inevitable, the cost of tuition.
- Choose one: creativity or productvity.
- Competition gets in the way of being oneself.
- No fool like an old fool.
- Marriage is a novel, not a short-story.
- Marriage is like going to church. You need to believe in it.
Zuihitsu: 2022-04
Technically, zuihitsu are longer reflections than what I tend to collect. But, the general idea is right. Here’s this month’s installment. If you want the complete set, please download the fortune file.
1. I tell you: one must have chaos in oneself to give birth to a dancing star.—Thus Spoke Zarathustra by Friedrich Nietzsche
2. Build, test, and improve.
3. Apes vs. Gorillas, aka users vs. providers.
4. Find your own way of doing things, make your own rules.
5. If you’re thinking, but not writing, you only think that you are thinking.
6. Things are going to be alright, whatever happens.
7. r, the interest rate, is the rental rate for capital, and w is the rental rate (wage rate) for labor.
8. Parking lots are major revenue generators for airports. Storage is big business everywhere.
9. You can swim all day in the sea of knowledge and not get wet.–Norton Juster
10. Look at the world without euphemism.
11. Most arguments fail due to lack of imagination.
12. The Internet amplifies variance.
13. The puppet does not pull the strings of the puppet master.
14. You can print money but not oil to heat or wheat to eat.
15. All ESG roads eventually lead to international confrontation, nationalisation or protectionism.
16. You could not have wished to be born at a better time than this, when everything is lost.—Simone Weil
17. Don’t privilege privilege.
18. Love triangles are never equilateral.
19. It is better to take what does not belong to you than to let it lie around neglected.—Mark Twain
20. Many and small beats large and heavy.
21. Finding always beats flanking.
22. Swarming always beats surging.
23. I slept and dreamt that life was joy. I awoke and saw that life was service. I acted and behold, service was joy.—Rabindranath Tagore
24. What makes you dance in the streets?
25. Some things are not meant to be.
26. You can’t unshit your pants.
27. Who brings more value, the producer or the reducer?
28. You can have all the ingredients and still not know the recipe.
29. Don’t be afraid of changing your mind.
30. Equality that penalizes productivity isn’t equality.
31. Don’t shitpost with your wallet.
32. Solve the mystery no one was wondering about.
33. You cannot get water from a book. But, a book might help you find it.
34. A boat should be in the water. But, the water shouldn’t be in the boat. Same with people and the world.
35. Time in a growth market > timing the market
36. Twitter is Uber for ideas.
37. If you are going to manage it, you first have to acknowledge it.
38. Progress, not perfection.
39. Doubt kills.
40. Change your world.
41. When you pray for rain, you have got to deal with the mud too.
42. Takes talent to make money, but brains to keep it.
43. Same mud, same blood.
44. Nothing is more expensive than free. Nothing harder than looking for the easy way.
45. Curating is an act of generosity—you’re sharing what you love and what has inspired you.
46. Be regular and orderly in your life, so that you may be violent and original in your work.—Gustave Flaubert
47. Our past is never where we left it.
48. Nobody’s as deaf as those that don’t want to listen.
49. You cannot change where you come from, but you can change where you are going.
50. Imagination leads to emancipation.
51. Humans are more important than hardware.
52. Actions over credentials.
53. Every decline is surfable.
54. When nothing is happening, change what you are doing.
55. Vision, a positive attitude, and hard work can make a new reality.
56. Less furious, more curious.
57. Don’t be afraid to offend.
58. Social media are the fidget spinners of the soul.
59. Some tools can only be used to destroy.
60. Most of the disorder and dysfunction in the world is caused by lack of impulse control.—Dr. Andrew Huberman
61. Resistance or difficulty is necessary in order to understand the nature and depth of our own desires.
62. Few devices have done more to obscure the efforts of human labor than the smartphone.
63. Get it down there where the dogs can eat it.
64. Things that cannot go on forever, stop.
