"During the 2020s, key technologies will converge to completely disrupt the five foundational sectors that underpin the global economy, and with them every major industry in the world today. The knock-on effects for society will be as profound as the extraordinary possibilities that emerge.In information, energy, food, transportation, and materials, costs will fall by 10x or … Continue reading The Age of Freedom, RethinkX
Tag: predictions
Revisiting “A China Prediction”
...there’s going to be a reckoning, and the funny thing is that reckoning is going to begin in China and then eventually spread to the rest of the world. Whether it will happen in close proximity to the end of the COVID-19 pandemic remains to be seen, but there is definitely a short term correction … Continue reading Revisiting “A China Prediction”
U.S. COVID-19: The Long Plateau
https://www.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1255976675252158465 Trevor Bedford is a scientist that studies viruses. Worth checking out the whole thread.
The Psychology of Prediction · Collaborative Fund
"The correct lesson to learn from surprises is that the world is surprising." —Morgan Housel. "The Psychology of Prediction." Collaborative Fund. July 21, 2019.
One and One Sometimes Equals Eleven
We often make assumptions that are reasonable in one context, abstract it into a guideline and apply that guideline to a new situation. Often, it is difficult to assess whether these situations are close enough to apply what we know to what we don't. At base, this is the problem of induction. There is no … Continue reading One and One Sometimes Equals Eleven
Simple Risk Measurement
"Simple Risk Measurement is written to help you measure complicated risks using a process that’s simple enough to work out on the back of a napkin and powerful enough to organize a rocket launch. If you are an engineer motivated by the reduction of risk and are frustrated by how to measure your progress, you … Continue reading Simple Risk Measurement
If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
Suggestions for improving forecasting and communication about it: Use probabilities instead of words to avoid misinterpretation Use structured approaches to set probabilities Seek feedback to improve your forecasting —Andrew Mauboussin and Michael J. Mauboussin. "If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?" Harvard Business Review. July 3, 2018. Sites like … Continue reading If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is?
Way of the Future
"Way of the Future (WOTF) is about creating a peaceful and respectful transition of who is in charge of the planet from people to people + "machines". Given that technology will "relatively soon" be able to surpass human abilities, we want to help educate people about this exciting future and prepare a smooth transition. Help … Continue reading Way of the Future
Azeem Azhar: The Exponential View
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View is a weekly newsletter devoted to exploring how technology is changing businesses, economics, the political and social enviroment, etc. Example: the most recent issue has a link discussing how the oil industry will end.
cafebedouin.org 