Three Constraints Creating Permanent Elite Control Despite Democratic Elections Classification: Judicial Gatekeeping SnareDate: January 27, 2026Status: Critical transition moment (Feb 8, 2026 election + constitutional referendum)Confidence: Very High (extensive historical validation, Prolog models, current crisis data) Executive Summary Thailand's electoral system represents a seventh distinct archetype in the constraint topology framework: the Judicial Gatekeeping Snare. … Continue reading Thailand’s Electoral Topology: The Judicial Gatekeeping Snare
Tag: Political Constraints
A Constraint Story: Why Colombia’s Election Defies Standard Forecasting
TL;DR Standard prediction models will focus on polling momentum, scandal exposure, debate performance, and macroeconomic shocks. These matter, but they're second-order variables. The constraint structure of Columbia's election determines what range of outcomes is possible; campaign events select within that range. These are the signals that matter: 1. Coalition Fragmentation Pressure (C3 Entropy) Watch whether … Continue reading A Constraint Story: Why Colombia’s Election Defies Standard Forecasting
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