Generalizing the 5/10/15 Rule for U.S. Drug Development, Or The Cycle of the New

“U.S. drug development cycle, which he says “always follows the 5/10/15 rule. For the first 5 years, companies hype new drugs; next 5 years all hidden side effects are exposed, leading to black-box warnings and class action lawsuits; in [the] last 5 years, the companies start dissing their own old drug as the patent runs out to begin the hype cycle for their next new drug.” 

-Jane Metclafe, “2023 Predictions-The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly.” January 2023

This article on 2023 predictions is worth reading in full. However, I particularly found this piece interesting. Ultimately, this is about how incentives drive behavior. So, we might generalize this rule to something like: “Any novel thing goes through a period that focuses on benefits, another period on the risks, then finally becomes the status quo that will be replaced by some other, new thing.”

Boxing Time & Losing

Over the course of writing this blog, I’ve come to view writing as an important activity, like meditation. And like meditation, I find my motivation comes in fits and spurts. One thing I found helpful with this site is the “don’t break the chain” method. Simply create the expectation and the space that you will sit down and do something for some period of time. It’s alright if you don’t do it. But, if that thing is say, running, and you know that it’s the time and you have your running shoes on. Chances are, you’ll do it.

The problem is when you have people in your life that want to live schedules that are different than yours, or have no schedule at all. So, in a moment of spontaneity, they’ll say something like: “I’m going to run some errands. Do you want to come with me?” Or, you have children, who when they are around behave in this way. I suspect that is why parents are so eager to put them on a schedule. If you don’t box the time, you’ll have none left for yourself or the things you want to do.

Perhaps the place where this is most insidious is social media. Like having children around, it is always there, an inexhaustible hole in which to dump your attention. With children, we do this because giving them our attention is an act of love. However, even love needs limits. But, what are we doing with social media? What benefits does it offer?

It can be entertaining. It is certainly distracting, so you do not have to focus your attention on the problems at hand. But, I cannot help feel that it is not time well spent. Whereas, time writing comments like this one, feels more like it is helping me gain a better understanding of how the world works and how I want to be within it.

Social media is like dipping into the Overmind of humanity. There’s interesting material there, but it needs to be balanced again incorporating it into our lives in a way that is beneficial. I’m currently failing to do that, as the infrequent posts to this blog serve as evidence. But, I’m working on it.

Zuihitsu, 2022-12

Technically, zuihitsu are longer reflections than what I tend to collect. But, the general idea is right. Here’s this month’s installment. If you want the complete set, please download the fortune file.

  • The first rule of life: don’t be a dickhead.
  • Men only have money the first month of dating, that’s recruitment budget. Never confuse it with operational budget.
  • Travel is a meat thing. Best for those whose meat is still fresh.
  • Emotional abuse: threats, using relationship history or traditiobal roles to avoid responsibility, pressure, ignoring boundaries, guilting, shaming, and getting other people to manipulate on your behalf.
  • Don’t believe the hype!—Public Enemy
  • Good friends, good books and a sleepy conscience: this is the ideal life.—Mark Twain
  • …there is no such thing as information-overload; there is just filter failure.—Clay Shirky
  • How might this experience bring out the best in me and help me grow?
  • Life is self-directed.
  • The planning fallacy, is the tendency to underestimate the amount of time needed to complete a future task, due in part to the reliance on overly optimistic performance scenarios.
  • Stop carrying the world on your shoulders. You ain’t got the build for it.
  • People rarely want advice. Most want to be heard. Learn to listen. Don’t try to fix it, change it, or project your own emotions onto it.
  • A question for wants: if I already had it, would I be glad?
  • Everything is possible. But not everything fits budget and timeline.
  • There’s always a tell, the canary in the coal mine, that announces the change. The hard part is recognizing it.
  • Adjudicating hacks allows systems to evolve.
  • …everybody is going to hurt you. You just gotta find the ones worth suffering for.—Bob Marley
  • Do things for love. Love is not earned. Love is either freely given, or it is not love at all.
  • Art is never finished, only abandoned.—Leonardo Da Vinci
  • The more comfortable you become in your own skin, the less you need to manufacture the world around you for comfort.
  • Get smart in secret and get stupid in public.
  • Do the easy bit first.
  • Looking to the past or present is a great way to miss the future.
  • Authentic love is about freedom, not possession.
  • Be the reason someone feels seen, heard, understood, appreciated, supported, and loved.
  • Choose grow over comfort, discipline over procrastination, improving over impressing, and progress over perfection.
  • Thinking stops at certainty.
  • Without nuance, ideas become more simple and more wrong.
  • It is enough for lazy wits to have the appearance of knowing.
  • Face, accept, float, let time pass.
  • Engage in a conspiracy of love with the whole world.
  • Self-directed learning is never boring.
  • The grown-ups never understand anything by themselves, and, for children, it’s tiresome always giving them explanations.—Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, The Little Prince
  • Most beliefs put ideology above evidence.
  • Wisdom is knowing the right thing to do at the right time.
  • Crickets are the orchestra of the stars.
  • Struggle leads to transformation.
  • We are all living off the fat of a dream gone bad.
  • Launch determines orbit.
  • You are not your thoughts or opinions.
  • When I shit job needs to be done, cover all the angles and try not to get shat upon.
  • To own an idea, you have to spend the cognitive time buying it.
  • Stay cautious, stay alive.
  • The overall aim of most thought is tranquillity, not truth.
  • Bees and flies eat different food. No fly can convince a bee to start eating shit.
  • The problem with stereotypes is people never live up to them.
  • Say, or learn to say: I’m sorry. I don’t know. I was wrong. I need help.
  • Lotteries distract from discontent with irrational hope.
  • Day wise, decade foolish.
  • Without agency, every problem is a catastrophe.
  • Speaking without thought is not the same as speaking the truth.
  • Philosophy is question fandom.
  • The path to self-realization is strewn with embracing uncomfortable truths.
  • Addiction is often an expression of anger.
  • Respect leaves room for questions and challenges.
  • Through play, we re-learn how to trust our own eyes and ears and resist those who would command us.
  • It is enough that it is engaging until we are ready to walk away.

Zuihitsu, 2022-11

Technically, zuihitsu are longer reflections than what I tend to collect. But, the general idea is right. Here’s this month’s installment. If you want the complete set, please download the fortune file.

  • All great change comes from community and from individuals learning what  is within their individual and collective power.
  • Choose in your best interest. Forgive yourself for the past. Everyday, create your future self and some moments of peace.
  • Wear your Halloween costume on a different day.
  • Prediction is less important than adaptability.
  • The most important question: what can I learn from this?
  • In the sublime war of man against Reality man has but one weapon, the imagination. 
  • A beautiful thing is never perfect.
  • You can’t fight ideas with bullets.
  • Ignorance of some topics is wisdom.
  • Conflict can help people connect, but many people engage in: score keeping, deflection, gaslighting, or defensiveness.
  • Understand and express what you want.
  • Conflict is made worse when we fight (attack), flight (leave), freeze (play dead), or fawn (appease/people people) because information cannot be processed. Pause the discussion if any of these are happening.
  • Always three options: accept, reframe or reject.
  • Monetize your problems.
  • Complacency breeds crisis. Hustle breeds abundance.
  • The normal consists of a null set which nobody and nothing really fits.
  • Don’t yuck the yums of others.
  • The ear catches what the eye misses.
  • If your life is a mess, your work is a mess.
  • Debts to be paid: once for a simple trade, twice for free-given aid, and thrice for the insult made.
  • Risk cannot be destroyed, it can only be shifted through time and redistributed in form.—Christopher Cole
  • I would rather have questions that can’t be answered than answers that can’t be questioned.—Feynman
  • Vanity is the quicksand of reason.—George Sand
  • Sometimes you can be done even if you’re not finished.
  • The purpose of thinking is so our though to die instead of us.—Alfred North Whitehead
  • There is always something that can’t be fixed.
  • Better to live with the devil than with an angry woman.
  • Frustration often precedes desire.
  • Coopted language is a tool of oppression.
  • You are not responsible for the emotions of others.
  • The secret of power is the knowledge that others are more cowardly than you are.—Ludwig Borne
  • Talking often runs way ahead of the doing.
  • In life, and in the circus, you need to gasp.
  • Celebrate other people’s wins.
  • A tragedy rarely ends with the principals.
  • If it’s your decision, it’s design; if not, it’s a requirement.—Alistair Cockburn
  • A rule of thumb: one needs to wait a minimum of 12 to 15 seconds for young children to respond to a question or a command.
  • If you’re playing defense, you’re losing.
  • …everything that lives, not vegetative life alone, emerges from darkness and, however strong its natural tendency to thrust itself into the light, it nevertheless needs the security of darkness to grow at all.—Hannah Arendt
  • Speak less, to fewer people and less often.
  • Lend freely, against good collateral, at a penalty rate.
  • A smart person learns from their mistakes, and a wise person learns from other people’s mistakes.
  • Never sleep with anybody who has more problems than you.—Robert McKee.
  • Being vulnerable is hard, but it’s the only way for us to more fully understand what we need to explain.
  • Speak your truth and live with the consequences.
  • All is fair if you predeclare.
  • Poor man wanna be rich, rich man wanna be king. And a king ain’t satisfied till he rules everything.—Bruce Springstein
  • Who you are is not your fault, but it is your responsibility.
  • What we hate most in others is usually what we hate most in ourselves.
  • Real confidence looks like humility. You no longer need to advertise your value because it comes from a place that does not require the validation of others.
  • True adventure rarely comes freshly scrubbed. Sometimes, you gotta get your hands dirty.
  • Personal growth implies outgrowing some relationships too.
  • Fortune favors the prepared mind.—Louis Pasteur
  • Don’t water dead plants.
  • Honor your needs and limits.
  • When someone says they don’t fit in, they’re probably looking to fit in, somewhere.
  • The personal is more important than the perfect.
  • You can not calm the storm. You can only calm yourself until the storm has passed.
  • Bow down before the one you serve, you’re going to get what you deserve.—Trent Reznor
  • The world is full of lonely people waiting to make the first move.
  • Everything you feed grows.
  • Wait until the outcome is clear, and then wait some more. 

Zuihitsu, 2022-10

Technically, zuihitsu are longer reflections than what I tend to collect. But, the general idea is right. Here’s this month’s installment. If you want the complete set, please download the fortune file.

  1. When dealing with enemies, the goal must not be diagnosis, but defeat.
  2. All observation is drenched in theory.
  3. The problem with rowing your own boat is that you can’t see where you’re going.
  4. When people thought the Earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the Earth was spherical, they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the Earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the Earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together.—Isaac Asimov
  5. Some variance clarifies. Some disrupts.
  6. Modern finance’s innovations tend to make safe assets more risky.
  7. Survival in adverse environments is more important than maximum returns under favorable conditions.
  8. Even music can be a weapon when someone else controls it.
  9. Sind Kryptowährungen eine Verirrung oder ein Spiegelbild unserer selbst?
  10. Indecision often results from thinking we have more control than we do.
  11. Existence is a guerilla campaign.
  12. The problem with belief in universal truth or universal values is it also comes with the belief that they must be imposed on the rest of the globe, either through diplomacy, coercion, or violence.
  13. Stay in the game. Be patient. Avoid the big mistake. Do these things and you’ll be just fine.
  14. Those who are easily shocked should be shocked more often.—Mae West
  15. People that play it safe when young end up playing it safe their whole lives.
  16. If you cannot win the war you are fighting, fight another one.
  17. Journalism: history or conversation?
  18. …every instance of turf-protecting selfishness is evidence not of flawed human nature, but of a flawed society, one that values stuff or power or money or winning over relationships.
  19. The world is not a solid continent of facts sprinkled by a few lakes of uncertainties, but a vast ocean of uncertainties speckled by a few islands of calibrated and stabilised forms.—Bruno Latour
  20. Two types of categorization: lumpers and splitters.
  21. An artist is not paid for labor but for vision.—James McNeill Whistler
  22. You can learn as much from things done badly as things done well.
  23. …if it’s provably secure, it’s probably not.—Lars Ramkilde Knudse
  24. Sometimes to find the light, we must first touch the darkness.
  25. Despise not the labor that humbles the heart.
  26. Controversy is artificial interestingness.
  27. What cannot be known hollows the mind. Fill it not with guesswork.
  28. It darkens the heart to call dark deeds good.
  29. Autocracy is brittle because it is blind.
  30. Death, taxes and people complaining. The sure things in life.
  31. Sometimes you change the subject, and sometimes the subject changes you.
  32. Without pain, without struggle, without anguish, discomfort and fear, transformation is impossible.
  33. When someone is crying, someone is learning.
  34. Are you weird enough?
  35. Learning is really just widening.
  36. Launch and iterate beats plan and pontificate.
  37. Les vacances, c’est la période qui permet aux employés de se souvenir que les affaires peuvent continuer sans eux.—E.J. Wilson
  38. If you need a sign, it’s bad design.
  39. Some people need a push, some need a shove. Some need the barrel of a .38 snub.
  40. Extinction is the rule. Survival is the exception.—Carl Sagan
  41. Don’t play the sap for some cause.
  42. Our main mission in life is to say to the other people: Do not be afraid.
  43. Learn the difference between constructive criticism and someone projecting their own insecurities.
  44. There is hope. Infinite hope. Just not for us.
  45. If your definition of a friend is someone who will die for you, then you don’t have any friends.
  46. Loneliness is solitude with a problem.
  47. Tomorrow may belong to your foes, but there is always the day after tomorrow.
  48. Being a nobody can be a great advantage because no one bothers to lie to you.
  49. Men will build empires for a wink and a meal.
  50. You can always tell a [type of person], but you can’t tell him much.
  51. History does not take lifelong holidays.
  52. You cannot make something good until you know who you are making it for.
  53. Knowledge all by itself, without deep wisdom, ends up becoming despair.—Ram Dass
  54. The very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common – they don’t change their views to fit the facts. They change the facts to fit their views, which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs changing.—The Doctor
  55. Cultivate and relearn the practice discernment.
  56. Write, think and create — a page a day.
  57. A bad metaphor is a curse.
  58. New environments have different norms and different cultures.
  59. People need a creative outlet, unstructured time and to know they are valued.
  60. When the judgment comes, the people in the middle will fall into hell first.
  61. Love is a choice and an action. Love is never merely a feeling.

Teacher Tom & Transformation

…without pain, without struggle, without anguish, discomfort and fear, transformation is impossible…Real learning, which is to say, transformation from a state of ignorance to one of enlightenment, is in reality more of a lurching, spiraling, ebb and flow, full of peaks and valleys, and yes, pain and suffering. Those of us in the world of play-based learning, myself included, tend to become fixated on the joy, but in reality, we know the much of the greatest learning comes through falls, disappointments, and failure, because we are not in the business of schooling, but rather transformation…

…Genuine growth and transformation most often come through pain and struggle. We must lose aspects of our old self, our old life, as we become new, and that is always at least uncomfortable. I’ve taught myself a mantra to recall, even as I’m tending to the physical and psychological bumps and bruises of young children: when someone is crying, someone is learning. Perhaps not in that moment of acute pain, of course, but in the struggle of transformation that inevitably comes on the other side, even if it’s only the conclusion, Well, I won’t do that again.”

-Teacher Tom, “Struggle Is Essential To Transformation.” October 16, 2022.

I have just learned of this lovely blog. Teacher Tom is an elementary school teacher and his writing is wonderful. I figured it was worth noting and recommending for those who, like me, hadn’t heard of him before this week.

Little Rules About Big Things

“People have vastly different desires, except for three things: Respect, feeling useful, and control over their time. Those are nearly universal.

…the past wasn’t as good as you remember, the present isn’t as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate.

A comforting delusion is thinking that other people’s bad circumstances couldn’t also happen to you.

Nothing too good or too bad stays that way forever, because great times plant the seeds of their own destruction through complacency and leverage, and bad times plant the seeds of their own turnaround through opportunity and panic-driven problem-solving.

Emotions can override any level of intelligence.

No one is thinking about you as much as you are.

There is an optimal amount of bullshit in life. Having no tolerance for hassle, nonsense and inefficiency is not an admirable trait; it’s denying reality. Once you accept a certain level of BS, you stop denying its existence and have a clearer view of how the world works.

You can’t believe in risk without also believing in luck because they are fundamentally the same thing—an acknowledgment that things outside of your control can have a bigger impact on outcomes than anything you do on your own.

A large group of people can become better informed over time. But they can’t, on average, become more patient, less greedy, or more level-headed during periods of upheaval. That will never change.

More people wake up every morning wanting to solve problems than wake up looking to cause harm. But people who cause harm get the most attention. So slow progress amid a drumbeat of bad news is the normal state of affairs.”

-Morgan Housal, “Little Rules About Big Things.” Collab Fund. October 11, 2022

This whole thing is quality.

Zuihitsu, 2022-09

Technically, zuihitsu are longer reflections than what I tend to collect. But, the general idea is right. Here’s this month’s installment. If you want the complete set, please download the fortune file.

  1. Make a decision.
  2. The one true religion, survival.
  3. True creation requires sacrifice.
  4. Always be moving.
  5. The idea they one should do whatever it takes is irresponsible. Some things need razing.
  6. By their deeds you shall know them.
  7. There will come a time when you believe everything is finished. That will be the beginning.​—Louis L’Amour
  8. …the inevitable crisis takes longer to come than you can imagine, but when it does come it happens faster than you can imagine.—Dornbusch’s Law
  9. Surrealism is destructive, but it destroys only what it considers to be shackles limiting our vision.—Salvador Dali
  10. Faith is 24 hours of doubt, and 1 minute of hope.
  11. The universe defines a work and war decides where it will end up.
  12. Revolutions are produced by improved conditions and rising expectations, not by mass immiseration.
  13. The light obtained by setting straw men on fire is not what we mean by illumination.—Adam Gopnick
  14. The narrating self doesn’t replace sense with story; it makes a story that makes its own sense.
  15. New styles involve breaking the algorithm, not following it.
  16. The middle way is not the way of melodrama.
  17. True revolution is a change of mindset.
  18. There’s head sense, and there’s heart sense.
  19. Even the hottest coals cool.
  20. Watches are the NFTs of meat space.
  21. Time proves which ideas are good enough to live on.
  22. Reacting to pain and pain avoidance usually result in bad decisions.
  23. If a book is tedious to you, don’t read it; that book was not written for you.—Jorge Luis Borges
  24. Utopia is impossible because problems are inevitable. Solving any problem leads to new problems. Dystopia is impossible because problems are solvable. Any solution not prohibited by laws of nature can be figured out. Progress means solving better and better problems forever. Life in inherently problematic, which makes it inherently interesting.
  25. Can you solve a small part of the problem?
  26. Figure out a way to make more mistakes.
  27. When Western people become wealthier, they buy more loneliness.
  28. True lack of understanding is learned.
  29. Landmine people, some people were put into the universe to rig it to explode, then walk away.
  30. Fighting with memes is fighting with weapons that will be coopted.
  31. Familiarity breeds comfort, not contempt.
  32. Least said, soonest mended.
  33. Love and freedom do not coexist.
  34. What we know is that we don’t know anything.
  35. People don’t care about research, principles or good governance. What they want is the magic bullet.
  36. Fear deafens the heart.
  37. The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool.—Richard Feynman