Note: What follows is a falsification matrix for the essay, "A Constraint Story: Why Colombia’s Election Defies Standard Forecasting." Testing the Constraint Theory Against Observable Data LIVE UPDATE: January 26, 2026 - Prediction Market Analysis Current Market Probabilities (Median Forecasts) Source: Prediction market opened 01/16/26, data as of 01/26/26 CandidateMedian ProbabilityRange (Low-High)Essay ExpectationStatusAbelardo de la Espriella46%25-58%~35% … Continue reading Colombia 2026 Election: Falsification Matrix