Estimate: ~15% (range 10–20%) Base rate. Forced irregular removal of authoritarian leaders runs roughly 2–4% per leader-year (general literature estimate, not verified against Archigos this session). The question's disjunction — flee or cease to be president — covers the full removal distribution. Starting prior: ~5%. What justifies a premium over base rate: Three stressors are … Continue reading Cuba Leadership Exit: Díaz-Canel Before 1 Jan 2027
Tag: geopolitics
The Structural Trap: How Iran’s Degraded Deterrence Heightens Escalation Risk Without a Clear Path to War
Eight months post-June 2025 Twelve-Day War, the Middle East lingers in armed stability: exhaustion and uncertainty, neither peace nor war. Israel's surprise strikes destroyed 35-45% of Iran's ballistic missile stockpile and eliminated key military leaders. The United States bombed three Iranian nuclear sites. Iran retaliated with over 550 ballistic missiles and 1,000 suicide drones targeting … Continue reading The Structural Trap: How Iran’s Degraded Deterrence Heightens Escalation Risk Without a Clear Path to War
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