"From 2011 to 2015, the US government-funded online initiative pitted the predictive powers of ordinary people against Washington, DC intelligence analysts on the most significant geopolitical questions of the day. Over successive rounds, Tetlock and Mellers identified the very best prognosticators from the 25,000-strong participant pool and shunted them into elite teams. Despite the fact … Continue reading The Secret Ingredients of ‘Superforecasting’
Tag: forecasting
Forecasting in R: Probability Bins for Time-Series Data
This time-series.R script, below, takes a set of historical time series data and does a walk using the forecast period to generate probabilistic outcomes from the data set. Input file is a csv file with two columns (Date, Value) with dates in reverse chronological order and in ISO-8601 format. Like so: 2019-08-06,1.73 2019-08-05,1.75 2019-08-02,1.86 Output … Continue reading Forecasting in R: Probability Bins for Time-Series Data
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