Forecasting in R: Probability Bins for Time-Series Data

August 12, 2019August 7, 2019 ~ cafebedouin

This time-series.R script, below, takes a set of historical time series data and does a walk using the forecast period to generate probabilistic outcomes from the data set. Input file is a csv file with two columns (Date, Value) with dates in reverse chronological order and in ISO-8601 format. Like so: 2019-08-06,1.73 2019-08-05,1.75 2019-08-02,1.86 Output … Continue reading Forecasting in R: Probability Bins for Time-Series Data

The Resulting Fallacy Is Ruining Your Decisions – Issue 55: Trust – Nautilus

July 24, 2019July 23, 2019 ~ cafebedouin

"In life, it’s usually even more complicated because in most real decisions we haven’t examined the coin. We don’t know if it is a fair coin, if it has two sides with a heads and tails on it and is weighted properly. That’s the hidden information problem. We can’t see everything. We haven’t experienced everything. … Continue reading The Resulting Fallacy Is Ruining Your Decisions – Issue 55: Trust – Nautilus