"Misuse of statistical testing often involves post hoc analyses of data already collected, making it seem as though statistically significant results provide evidence against the null hypothesis, when in fact they may have a high probability of being false positives…. A study from the late-1980s gives a striking example of how such post hoc analysis … Continue reading Problems of Post Hoc Analysis
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Forecasting in R: Probability Bins for Time-Series Data
This time-series.R script, below, takes a set of historical time series data and does a walk using the forecast period to generate probabilistic outcomes from the data set. Input file is a csv file with two columns (Date, Value) with dates in reverse chronological order and in ISO-8601 format. Like so: 2019-08-06,1.73 2019-08-05,1.75 2019-08-02,1.86 Output … Continue reading Forecasting in R: Probability Bins for Time-Series Data
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