"We have long needed a Plan B for the scenario where a big fraction of everyone gets exposed to Covid19, and for this plan I’ve explored variolation and other forms of deliberate exposure. To be ready, variolation just needs a small (~100) short (1-2mo.) trial to verify the quite likely (>75%) case that it works … Continue reading Time to Mitigate, Not Contain
Tag: COVID-19
Chances of a COVID-19 Vaccine
"The objective is to calculate risk profiles for vaccines targeting human infectious diseases. A database was actively compiled to include all vaccine projects in development from 1998 to 2009 in the pre-clinical development phase, clinical trials phase I, II and III up to Market Registration. The average vaccine, taken from the preclinical phase, requires a … Continue reading Chances of a COVID-19 Vaccine
Harvard’s Reinhart and Rogoff Say This Time Really Is Different
"And you want to talk about a negative productivity shock, too. The biggest positive productivity shock we’ve had over the last 40 years has been globalization together with technology. And I think if you take away the globalization, you probably take away some of the technology. So that affects not just trade, but movements and … Continue reading Harvard’s Reinhart and Rogoff Say This Time Really Is Different
U.S. COVID-19: The Long Plateau
https://www.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1255976675252158465 Trevor Bedford is a scientist that studies viruses. Worth checking out the whole thread.
Social Distancing: One Beatles Apart
From Pand<<<Aid.
Knowledge of the Future
"...there are (a) facts, (b) informed extrapolations from analogies to other viruses and (c) opinion or speculation....if you’re experiencing something that has never been seen before, you simply can’t say you know how it’ll turn out....There’s no algorithm for deciding whether to favor life for a few (or for thousands) versus economic improvement for millions."-Howard … Continue reading Knowledge of the Future
Grim News: Cutting Through the COVID-19 Bullshit
Flu pandemics for the last 250 years have had two peaks. Weather does not appear to effect their severity. Original assessment of the basic reproductive number, i.e., R0, of COVID-19 was ~2.5, with the Wikipedia entry on herd immunity citing a possibility as low as 1.4. But, R0 of COVID-19 has been reassessed, and it … Continue reading Grim News: Cutting Through the COVID-19 Bullshit
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research
"The purpose of this article on COVID-19 is to aggregate existing research, bring together the relevant data and allow readers to make sense of the published data and early research on the coronavirus outbreak."https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus When you get tired of listening to people that don't know what they are talking about blather on about epidemics, cures … Continue reading Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research
A Mass Message From My Doctor
Thought I'd pass this along in case your doctor isn't as good as mine. Unsolicited, fantastic advice that everyone should read. "Coronavirus and Clinic Updates: ...The crisis of Coronavirus is the exponential growth. The number of cases are increasing 30% per day. So however many cases we have today, we will have 10 times as … Continue reading A Mass Message From My Doctor
Don’t Panic: The Comprehensive Ars Technica Guide to the Coronavirus
"This new coronavirus—dubbed SARS-CoV-2—is unquestionably dangerous. It causes a disease called COVID-19, which can be deadly, particularly for older people and those with underlying health conditions. While the death rate among infected people is unclear, even some current low estimates are seven-fold higher than the estimate for seasonal influenza.And SARS-CoV-2 is here in the US, … Continue reading Don’t Panic: The Comprehensive Ars Technica Guide to the Coronavirus
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