TL;DR Standard prediction models will focus on polling momentum, scandal exposure, debate performance, and macroeconomic shocks. These matter, but they're second-order variables. The constraint structure of Columbia's election determines what range of outcomes is possible; campaign events select within that range. These are the signals that matter: 1. Coalition Fragmentation Pressure (C3 Entropy) Watch whether … Continue reading A Constraint Story: Why Colombia’s Election Defies Standard Forecasting