Estimate: ~15% (range 10–20%) Base rate. Forced irregular removal of authoritarian leaders runs roughly 2–4% per leader-year (general literature estimate, not verified against Archigos this session). The question's disjunction — flee or cease to be president — covers the full removal distribution. Starting prior: ~5%. What justifies a premium over base rate: Three stressors are … Continue reading Cuba Leadership Exit: Díaz-Canel Before 1 Jan 2027
Category: essays
When Intelligence Becomes Authorization: The Structural Logic of Leadership Decapitation
On March 1, 2026, a joint U.S.-Israeli strike killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior military, intelligence, and civilian officials in Tehran—sources range from 30 to 40 killed across leadership targets. The operation—code-named "Epic Fury" by the Pentagon and "Roar of the Lion" by Israel—struck three separate gatherings of senior officials … Continue reading When Intelligence Becomes Authorization: The Structural Logic of Leadership Decapitation
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